GeographyGS3+ GS2

Record-intensity El Niño threatens monsoon, global food security, and temperature records

Indian Express·2026-08-22· Read original

"Record-intensity El Niño threatens monsoon, global food security, and temperature records"

Prelims Facts

  • •El Niño occurs when Pacific trade winds weaken or reverse, shifting warm water eastward and releasing heat into the atmosphere.
  • •Current Pacific sea surface temperatures are more than 2°C above average; UK Met Office forecasts suggest they could exceed 3°C, a level not recorded since 1950.
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Key Terms

El Niño

periodic warming of central/eastern equatorial Pacific surface waters, disrupting global weather patterns.

Walker Circulation

atmospheric circulation cell over the tropical Pacific; weakened by El Niño, suppressing India's monsoon.

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Study Note

BackgroundCore Concept

Background

El Niño is the periodic warming of central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean surface waters. It is part of a larger climate cycle called the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). During El Niño, trade winds over the Pacific weaken or reverse. This allows warm water to shift eastward. The resulting heat release into the atmosphere raises global temperatures and disrupts rainfall and wind patterns across continents.

For India, El Niño is particularly consequential. It disrupts the Walker Circulation, weakening the pressure gradient that drives moisture-laden winds toward the subcontinent. This suppresses convective activity over India and reduces southwest monsoon rainfall. Historically, strong El Niño events have coincided with major Indian droughts. The years 2002, 2009, 2015–16, and 2023–24 are the most cited instances. India's southwest monsoon (June–September) irrigates approximately 60% of net sown area. Over half of all agricultural land is rain-fed, making the sector structurally vulnerable to monsoon variability. Agriculture employs roughly half of India's workforce and contributes 18–20% of GDP.

The Topic Explained

El Niño suppresses India's monsoon through a clear atmospheric pathway. Warming of Pacific surface waters weakens the Walker Circulation. This reduces the pressure gradient between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific. Monsoon winds weaken. Sea-surface temperatures over the western Indian Ocean fall. Evaporation drops. Moisture supply to the subcontinent is cut. The result is spatially uneven but statistically significant rainfall deficits, especially in peninsular and central India.

The kharif season, covering paddy, pulses, oilseeds, coarse cereals, sugarcane, and cotton, is sown between June and September. It is directly dependent on monsoon performance. A weak monsoon also depletes reservoir levels and groundwater recharge. This creates a cascading effect on the subsequent rabi season (wheat, mustard, chickpea), extending the output loss cycle to 12–18 months. Poor households, which spend 40–50% of their budgets on food, bear the sharpest welfare impact when food inflation rises in drought years. …

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Related PYQs

2016GS1 Prelims

With reference to 'Agenda 21', sometimes seen in the news, consider the following statements:

1.It is a global action plan for sustainable development.

2.It originated in the World Summit on Sustainable Development held in Johannesburg in 2002.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

A1 only
B2 only
CBoth 1 and 2
DNeither 1 nor 2
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2015GS1 Prelims

With reference to the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) and the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES), which of the following statements is/are correct?

1.IUCN is an organ of the United Nations and CITES is an international agreement between governments.

2.IUCN runs thousands of field projects around the world to better manage natural environments.

3.CITES is legally binding on the States that have joined it, but this Convention does not take the place of national laws.

Select the correct answer using the code given below.

A1 only
B2 and 3 only
C1 and 3 only
D1, 2 and 3
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Practice MCQs

Politymedium

With reference to El Niño, consider the following statements:

1.El Niño occurs when trade winds over the Pacific strengthen, pushing warm water westward.

2.El Niño suppresses India's southwest monsoon by weakening the Walker Circulation.

3.In the tropical Atlantic, El Niño tends to suppress hurricane activity.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

A1 and 2 only
B2 and 3 only
C1 and 3 only
D1, 2 and 3
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Politymedium

Which of the following best describes the 'Walker Circulation' in the context of monsoon science?

AA north-south atmospheric circulation cell driven by temperature differences between the Himalayas and the Indian Ocean
BAn east-west atmospheric circulation cell over the tropical Pacific that helps drive moisture-laden winds toward the Indian subcontinent
CA deep ocean current in the Atlantic that regulates heat exchange between the tropics and the polar regions
DA seasonal reversal of surface winds over the Arabian Sea that triggers the onset of the southwest monsoon
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Polityhard

Consider the following pairs regarding El Niño's regional impacts:

I.Northern South America and Australia — Increased drought and wildfire risk

II.Peru, Ecuador, and southern United States — Increased flood risk

III.Tropical Atlantic — Increased hurricane activity

IV.India's southwest monsoon — Above-average rainfall

How many of the pairs given above are correctly matched?

AOnly one
BOnly two
COnly three
DAll four
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Politymedium

With reference to India's policy instruments for managing El Niño-induced agricultural stress, which of the following is/are correctly described?

1.Under PMFBY, the farmer's premium for kharif crops is capped at 2% of the sum insured.

2.The Price Stabilisation Fund is used to moderate retail prices of sensitive agricultural commodities.

3.Minimum Export Prices are used to encourage exports during domestic supply shortfalls.

A1 and 2 only
B2 and 3 only
C1 and 3 only
D1, 2 and 3
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