IRGS3+ GS2

UNEP Report Warns 1.5°C Overshoot Now Unavoidable, Urges Methane Action

Indian Express, The Hindu·2026-09-05

"UNEP Report Warns 1.5°C Overshoot Now Unavoidable, Urges Methane Action"

Prelims Facts

  • •The Global Methane Pledge targets a 30% reduction in anthropogenic methane below 2020 levels by 2030; over 155 countries have signed, but India, China, Russia, and Iran have not.
  • •Methane contributes approximately 0.5°C of current global warming and is identified by UNEP as the most effective near-term lever to slow warming.
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Key Terms

Carbon Budget

Total cumulative CO₂ that can be emitted while staying within a temperature limit.

Overshoot, Peak and Decline

Pathway where temperatures exceed 1.5°C but are brought back down through removal and cuts.

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Study Note

BackgroundCore Concept

Background

The Paris Agreement (2015), signed by 193 countries and the European Union, set two temperature goals under Article 2: limiting warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursuing efforts to cap it at 1.5°C. These thresholds are not arbitrary. Climate impacts such as extreme heat, drought, coral bleaching, sea-level rise, and disruption to monsoon patterns intensify non-linearly beyond these levels. The lower threshold was elevated to the more desirable goal because risks are substantially lower at 1.5°C than at 2°C.

The scientific basis for these thresholds rests on the concept of a carbon budget: the total cumulative CO₂ that can be emitted while staying within a temperature limit. Once exhausted, the limit is crossed on a sustained basis. The IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) projected that 1.5°C would likely be crossed around 2035 under current emissions trajectories. The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) has tracked this gap annually through its Emissions Gap Reports, measuring the distance between countries' pledged actions and what science demands.

The principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR), accepted at the 1992 Rio Earth Summit, underpins the entire framework. Developed nations bear greater historical responsibility for cumulative emissions. Developing nations, including India, argue that their development needs must be accommodated and that they deserve financial and technological support. India's updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) commit to reducing emissions intensity of GDP by 45% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels, and achieving 50% cumulative electric power from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030.

The Topic Explained

The 1.5°C threshold refers to a long-term average of global surface temperatures above pre-industrial baselines, not a single year's reading. Scientists distinguish between a transient annual breach, caused partly by natural variability, and a sustained crossing measured over decades. A single warm year does not constitute a breach of the Paris Agreement target. This distinction matters because it separates short-term weather noise from long-term structural climate change.

The UNEP report Limiting Overshoot introduces an overshoot, peak and decline pathway. Under this framework, average global temperatures rise above 1.5°C, but countries collectively hold the peak as low as possible and then bring temperatures back down through aggressive emissions reductions and carbon removal. …

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Related PYQs

2022GS1 Prelims

"Climate Action Tracker" which monitors the emission reduction pledges of different countries is a:

ADatabase created by coalition of research organisations
BWing of "International Panel of Climate Change"
CCommittee under "United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change"
DAgency promoted and financed by United Nations Environment Programme and World Bank
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2017GS1 Prelims

In the context of mitigating the impending global warming due to anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide, which of the following can be the potential sites for carbon sequestration?

1.Abandoned and uneconomic coal seams

2.Depleted oil and gas reservoirs

3.Subterranean deep saline formations

Select the correct answer using the code given below:

A1 and 2 only
B3 only
C1 and 3 only
D1, 2 and 3
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2023GS1 Mains

Discuss the consequence of Climate change on the food security in tropical countries.

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2019GS1 Mains

Assess the impact of global warming on the coral life system with examples.

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2017GS1 Mains

In the context of mitigating the impending global warming due to anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide, which of the following can be the potential sites for carbon sequestration?

1.Abandoned and uneconomic coal seams

2.Depleted oil and gas reservoirs

3.Subterranean deep saline formations

Select the correct answer using the code given below:

A1 and 2 only
B3 only
C1 and 3 only
D1, 2 and 3
Sign up free to see the answer and explanation

Practice MCQs

Environmentmedium

Consider the following statements regarding the Global Methane Pledge:

1.It commits signatories to cut anthropogenic methane emissions at least 30% below 2020 levels by 2030.

2.India is a signatory to the Global Methane Pledge.

3.Methane is responsible for approximately 0.5°C of current global warming.

4.The Pledge has been signed by more than 100 countries.

Which of the statements given above are correct?

A1 and 3 only
B1, 3 and 4 only
C2, 3 and 4 only
D1, 2, 3 and 4
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Environmentmedium

Consider the following statements regarding India's Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs):

1.India has committed to reducing the emissions intensity of its GDP by 45% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels.

2.India has committed to achieving 50% cumulative electric power from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030.

3.India has joined the Global Methane Pledge as part of its updated NDC commitments.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

A1 only
B1 and 2 only
C2 and 3 only
D1, 2 and 3
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Environmentmedium

Match the following climate projections with their corresponding scenario:

List I (Scenario) — List II (Projected Peak Warming)

A.Full delivery on all current national climate pledges — 1. 2.6°C

B.Current policies without additional action — 2. 1.5°C

C.Paris Agreement aspirational limit — 3. 1.8°C

Select the correct match:

AA-3, B-1, C-2
BA-1, B-3, C-2
CA-2, B-1, C-3
DA-3, B-2, C-1
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Environmenthard

Consider the following statements regarding the 'overshoot, peak and decline' pathway described in the UNEP report Limiting Overshoot:

1.Under this pathway, global average temperatures are allowed to rise above 1.5°C before being brought back below that level by the end of the century.

2.The report argues that neutralising a tenth of a degree of warming is easier than preventing that rise in the first place.

3.Carbon Dioxide Removal technologies are identified as a supplement to, not a replacement for, deep emission cuts.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

A1 and 3 only
B2 and 3 only
C1 only
D1, 2 and 3
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Environmenteasy

The principle of 'Common but Differentiated Responsibilities' (CBDR) in global climate governance was first formally accepted at which of the following?

AKyoto Protocol, 1997
BRio Earth Summit, 1992
CParis Agreement, 2015
DStockholm Conference, 1972
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