EnvironmentGS3+ GS2

UNEP Report Warns 1.5°C Paris Threshold Now Effectively Breached

Indian Express·2026-09-06· Read original

"UNEP Report Warns 1.5°C Paris Threshold Now Effectively Breached"

Prelims Facts

  • •The Paris Agreement sets a long-term warming limit of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, with a softer ceiling of 2°C.
  • •The Loss and Damage Fund was established at COP27 (2022) under the UNFCCC to address climate-related losses in vulnerable nations.
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Key Terms

Climate Overshoot

temporary or sustained breach of a temperature target, requiring later drawdown through carbon removal

Loss and Damage Fund

UNFCCC mechanism established in 2022 to compensate vulnerable nations for irreversible climate impacts

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Study Note

BackgroundCore Concept

Background

The Paris Agreement of 2015 set a landmark global target: limit long-term average warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, with a softer ceiling of 2°C. This threshold was not arbitrary. Climate science shows that beyond 1.5°C, the risk of triggering irreversible tipping points rises sharply. These include the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, dieback of the Amazon rainforest, and the thawing of Arctic permafrost, each of which would release additional greenhouse gases and accelerate warming further.

The UNFCCC process has been the primary multilateral framework for coordinating climate action since 1992. Under it, countries submit Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), voluntary pledges to reduce emissions. The Kyoto Protocol (1997) was the first binding instrument under the UNFCCC, establishing emission reduction targets for developed nations. The Paris Agreement replaced this architecture with a universal, bottom-up pledge system. However, independent assessments have consistently found that collective NDCs fall far short of the emissions reductions needed to stay within 1.5°C. The gap between pledges and the required trajectory has widened over successive assessment cycles.

The UNEP Emissions Gap Report series and the IPCC Assessment Reports have tracked this divergence. The latest UNEP study, Limiting Overshoot, marks a significant shift in framing: it no longer treats 1.5°C as a target that can be met, but as a threshold that will be exceeded, with the policy question now being by how much and for how long.

The Topic Explained

The concept of climate overshoot refers to a scenario in which global temperatures temporarily exceed a target threshold before being brought back down, typically through large-scale carbon dioxide removal. The UNEP Limiting Overshoot report's best-case scenario projects warming peaking at approximately 1.8°C, not as a new target but as the minimum foreseeable consequence even under the most ambitious action currently on the table.

Every fraction of a degree of additional warming matters. Higher temperatures increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, accelerate glacier retreat, raise sea levels, and push ecosystems past their adaptive capacity. The 1.5°C threshold is particularly significant because it marks the point beyond which several tipping points become more probable. Beyond this level, the resilience of communities near retreating glaciers and low-lying coastlines is severely compromised. …

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Related PYQs

2022GS3 Mains

Discuss global warming and mention its effects on the global climate. Explain the control measures to bring down the level of greenhouse gases which cause global warming, in the light of the Kyoto Protocol, 1997.

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2023GS1 Mains

Discuss the consequence of Climate change on the food security in tropical countries.

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2017GS1 Prelims

In the context of mitigating the impending global warming due to anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide, which of the following can be the potential sites for carbon sequestration?

1.Abandoned and uneconomic coal seams

2.Depleted oil and gas reservoirs

3.Subterranean deep saline formations

Select the correct answer using the code given below:

A1 and 2 only
B3 only
C1 and 3 only
D1, 2 and 3
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Practice MCQs

Environmentmedium

Consider the following statements regarding the UNFCCC Loss and Damage Fund:

1.It was established at COP27 in 2022.

2.It is intended to compensate developing countries for climate-related losses that cannot be adapted to.

3.Its current corpus is sufficient to cover the rebuilding costs of a country like Nepal after a major climate disaster.

4.It operates under the Paris Agreement's NDC architecture.

Which of the statements given above are correct?

A1 and 2 only
B1, 2 and 4 only
C2 and 3 only
D1, 2, 3 and 4
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Environmentmedium

Consider the following statements regarding the Paris Agreement's temperature targets:

1.The Paris Agreement sets a hard limit of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels that must not be exceeded under any circumstances.

2.The UNEP Limiting Overshoot report's best-case scenario projects warming peaking at approximately 1.8°C.

3.Climate overshoot refers to a scenario where temperatures temporarily exceed a target before being brought back down through carbon dioxide removal.

4.Current collective NDCs are sufficient to limit warming to 2°C by 2100.

Which of the statements given above are correct?

A1 and 4 only
B2 and 3 only
C1, 2 and 3 only
D2, 3 and 4 only
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Environmenthard

Consider the following statements regarding the Kyoto Protocol:

1.It established legally binding emission reduction targets for all signatory countries.

2.The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) allowed developed countries to earn emission credits by funding low-carbon projects in developing countries.

3.It introduced the principle of Common But Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR).

4.The Paris Agreement replaced the Kyoto Protocol with a universal, bottom-up NDC architecture.

Which of the statements given above are correct?

A1 and 3 only
B2 and 4 only
C2, 3 and 4 only
D1, 2, 3 and 4
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Environmenthard

Match the following carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approaches with their descriptions:

List I (CDR Approach) — List II (Description)

A.BECCS — 1. Machines extract CO2 directly from ambient air and store it geologically

B.DACCS — 2. Biomass grown to absorb CO2 is burned for energy; emissions are captured and stored

C.Afforestation — 3. New forests are planted on land not previously forested to act as carbon sinks

D.REDD+ — 4. A UNFCCC mechanism that compensates developing countries for reducing deforestation

AA-2, B-1, C-3, D-4
BA-1, B-2, C-4, D-3
CA-2, B-1, C-4, D-3
DA-1, B-2, C-3, D-4
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