EconomyGS3+ GS1

Monsoon Deficit and El Niño Push India's September Power Demand to Record Levels

Indian Express·2026-09-14· Read original

"Monsoon Deficit and El Niño Push India's September Power Demand to Record Levels"

Prelims Facts

  • •India's peak power demand reached 269 GW in September, the highest ever recorded for that month, nearly matching the summer peak of 270 GW in May.
  • •Thermal power is the largest consumer of water among all industries in India and is the country's largest source of CO2 emissions.
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Key Terms

El Niño

Periodic warming of equatorial Pacific waters that suppresses India's southwest monsoon.

Real Time Market

Near-real-time electricity trading platform on IEX for grid balancing.

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Study Note

BackgroundCore Concept

Background

El Niño, the periodic warming of central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean surface waters, disrupts the Walker Circulation. This weakens the moisture-laden winds that drive India's southwest monsoon (June–September). Historically, strong El Niño events have coincided with major Indian droughts and below-normal monsoon seasons. The agricultural consequences are well-documented, but the cascading impact on India's power sector is equally significant and less discussed.

India's electricity generation mix is diverse but unevenly resilient to climate variability. Coal-based thermal power remains the backbone, contributing over 70% of installed capacity. Hydroelectric power accounts for roughly 12–13% of installed capacity. Renewable sources, solar and wind, are a growing share. Thermal power plants are also the largest consumers of water among all industries in India, a fact that becomes critical when El Niño reduces overall water availability: the very source that must compensate for lost hydro output is itself highly water-dependent. This creates a compounding resource stress during drought years.

India's electricity sector is governed by the Electricity Act, 2003, which unbundled generation, transmission, and distribution into separate functions. State utilities, generation companies and transmission companies, operate under state government oversight. The Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) is the country's largest power trading platform, where real-time and day-ahead electricity is bought and sold at market-clearing prices. India's electricity and heat production sector is also the largest source of CO2 emissions in the country, meaning that any forced shift toward coal-based generation during climate-driven supply shortfalls directly worsens India's emissions profile.

The Topic Explained

El Niño affects the power sector through two primary pathways. First, deficient rainfall reduces reservoir inflows, directly cutting hydroelectric generation. India's major hydro projects, concentrated in the Himalayan belt, the Western Ghats, and the northeast, depend on monsoon-fed river flows. A below-normal monsoon can reduce hydro output significantly in affected years. Second, El Niño alters atmospheric pressure gradients, which can weaken wind speeds in key energy corridors, reducing wind power output as well.

Hydropower plays a structurally important role beyond its share of installed capacity. It provides flexible, dispatchable power, meaning it can be ramped up or down quickly to meet demand peaks. This makes it especially valuable during evening hours when solar output drops but demand remains high. …

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Related PYQs

2013GS1 Prelims

Which one among the following industries is the maximum consumer of water in India?

AEngineering
BPaper and pulp
CTextiles
DThermal power
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2025GS1 Prelims

Consider the following statements:

I.Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in India are less than 0.5 t CO2/capita.

II.In terms of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion, India ranks second in Asia-Pacific region.

III.Electricity and heat producers are the largest sources of CO2 emissions in India.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

AI and III only
BII only
CII and III only
DI, II and III
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Practice MCQs

Economymedium

Consider the following statements regarding India's electricity sector:

1.Thermal power is the largest consumer of water among all industries in India.

2.Electricity and heat producers are the largest source of CO2 emissions in India.

3.The Electricity Act, 2003 merged generation, transmission, and distribution under a single national authority.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

A1 and 2 only
B2 and 3 only
C1 and 3 only
D1, 2 and 3
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Economymedium

With reference to El Niño and India's power sector, consider the following statements:

1.El Niño suppresses India's southwest monsoon by disrupting the Walker Circulation.

2.Reduced monsoon rainfall affects only hydroelectric generation and has no impact on wind power output.

3.Hydroelectric power provides dispatchable generation that can be ramped up quickly during evening peak demand hours.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

A1 only
B1 and 3 only
C2 and 3 only
D1, 2 and 3
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Economymedium

Match the following power sector entities with their primary roles:

List I (Entity) — List II (Role)

A.Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) — 1. Domestic coal supply to thermal power plants

B.Coal India Limited — 2. Near-real-time electricity trading and price discovery

C.India Meteorological Department (IMD) — 3. Monsoon and temperature forecasts used in grid planning

D.Central Electricity Authority — 4. Technical standards and national electricity planning

AA-2, B-1, C-3, D-4
BA-1, B-2, C-4, D-3
CA-2, B-4, C-1, D-3
DA-3, B-1, C-2, D-4
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Economymedium

Consider the following statements about hydroelectric power in India:

1.Hydroelectric power accounts for roughly 12–13% of India's total installed electricity generation capacity.

2.Hydropower is classified as non-dispatchable generation because its output cannot be adjusted to meet peak demand.

3.During El Niño years, hydro reservoir operators may prioritise water conservation over generation, increasing grid dependence on thermal sources.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

A1 and 2 only
B2 and 3 only
C1 and 3 only
D1, 2 and 3
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