"India's Strategic Choices Amid a Managed US-China Rivalry"
Strategic Autonomy
India's foreign policy doctrine of engaging all major powers without permanent bloc alignment.
Scaling Laws (AI)
The principle that AI capability improves predictably as compute and data increase.
Global efforts to govern frontier artificial intelligence have moved through a sequence of summits since the first AI Safety Summit at Bletchley Park in 2023. This was followed by the AI Seoul Summit in 2024 and the AI Action Summit in Paris in 2025, co-chaired by India and France. The United States and United Kingdom declined to sign the Paris summit's declaration on inclusive and sustainable AI, signalling that leading AI powers would resist binding multilateral commitments even while speaking the language of safety. India's co-chair role showed that New Delhi has sought an active part in shaping frontier AI norms rather than accepting rules set by others.
India's foreign policy has long rested on strategic autonomy, the ability to engage major powers on its own terms without permanent alignment to one bloc. Since the late 1980s, India and China worked to keep their border dispute contained while trade expanded rapidly, from under half a billion dollars in the early 1990s to more than $84 billion by 2017. India's security establishment continued to treat China as its principal long-term challenge even as economic ties grew. A significant section of India's strategic community assumed Washington would need India as a counterweight to Chinese power in Asia. That assumption is now under strain.
The concept of the Thucydides Trap, associated with political scientist Graham Allison, describes the structural risk of conflict when a rising power challenges an established one. It has a less-discussed second dimension. Established powers sometimes collude to constrain third powers rather than fight each other directly. This is the risk India now faces. If the United States and China increasingly manage their rivalry through direct summitry, AI dialogues, and trade arrangements, India's room to manoeuvre as a swing state narrows considerably.
The recent Trump-Xi summit in Washington placed AI on the agenda for the first time as a subject of direct great-power dialogue, alongside trade. The talks built on an earlier session between senior US and Chinese trade officials, where Washington proposed a channel to notify AI incidents with national-security consequences. AI governance between the two countries is therefore emerging through narrow, bilateral risk-management arrangements between the two largest holders of AI compute and talent, not through the multilateral AI Safety Summit process. …
'What introduces friction into the ties between India and the United States is that Washington is still unable to find for India a position in its global strategy, which would satisfy India's national self-esteem and ambitions.' Explain with suitable examples.
'The West is fostering India as an alternative to reduce dependence on China's supply chain and as a strategically to counter China's political and econimic dominance.' Explain this statement with examples.
Consider the following groupings:
1.Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad)
2.I2U2
3.Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)
India is a member of which of the above?
Consider the following statements about the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG):
1.It is an export-control regime aimed at preventing proliferation of nuclear-related materials and technology.
2.India has been a full member of the NSG since 2016, with China's support.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
With reference to the 'Thucydides Trap', consider the following statements:
1.It describes the structural risk of conflict when a rising power challenges an established power.
2.The term was coined by the ancient Greek historian Thucydides himself.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
Consider the following statements about India's bid for permanent membership of the UN Security Council:
1.India's claim rests partly on being among the largest contributors to UN peacekeeping missions.
2.China has consistently supported India's inclusion as a permanent member of the UN Security Council.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
Consider the following statements regarding India-China relations:
1.Rajiv Gandhi's 1988 visit to China provided the impetus for improving India-China relations after the 1962 conflict.
2.Bilateral trade between India and China has remained below $10 billion since 2000.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
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