"Scientists Warn of Severe El Niño, Call for Ecological Data"
El Niño
periodic warming of central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures, part of the ENSO cycle
ENSO
combined oceanic (El Niño/La Niña) and atmospheric (Southern Oscillation) phenomenon affecting global weather
For the first time, the World Meteorological Organisation, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and other research institutions have expressed high confidence in a 2026 El Niño forecast, putting a 97 per cent probability on it persisting into spring 2027 and over 80 per cent odds of it becoming a strong to very strong event. Sea surface temperature anomalies in the key Pacific monitoring region have already crossed +2.6°C, a level rarely seen, with projections of anomalies reaching +4°C, higher than anything reconstructed from 1,000-year coral-core climate records.
Under normal conditions, trade winds blow from east to west across the tropical Pacific. This piles warm surface water near Indonesia and Australia, forming a warm pool, while cold water from the Peru (Humboldt) coastal upwelling keeps the eastern Pacific, off South America, unusually cool. This same wind-driven temperature gradient is also why cyclones rarely form in the cold southeastern Pacific and South Atlantic: the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone seldom sets up over such cool waters. El Niño is the periodic breakdown of this pattern. Trade winds weaken, the warm pool sloshes eastward towards Peru, and the usual west-east ocean temperature gradient flattens out, weakening the Walker Circulation that normally pulls moisture-laden winds towards India.
Strong El Niño years have historically coincided with some of India's worst droughts, including 1972, 2002 and 2009. This is now unfolding against a backdrop of long-term global warming, which has made extreme weather routine rather than exceptional. In 2023 alone, 86 per cent of days saw an extreme weather event in India, damaging over 2.2 million hectares of cropland, with about 85 per cent of districts exposed to floods, droughts, or cyclones.
ENSO, the combined El Niño and Southern Oscillation phenomenon, is officially recognised once central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies exceed +0.5°C above the long-term average. A related system, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), measures the temperature difference between the western Indian Ocean near Africa and the eastern Indian Ocean near Sumatra. A positive IOD phase can offset El Niño's drying effect on the monsoon, while a negative IOD tends to amplify it, so the actual monsoon outcome depends on how the two systems interact, not on El Niño alone.
INCOIS, India's ocean monitoring agency, is forecasting severe heat stress across both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, peaking around March 2027. …
In the South Atlantic and South-Eastern Pacific regions in tropical latitudes, cyclone does not originate. What is the reason?
Consider the following statements:
1.In the tropical zone, the western sections of the oceans are warmer than the eastern sections owing to the influence of trade winds.
2.In the temperate zone, westerlies make the eastern sections of oceans warmer than the western sections.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
The World Bank warned that India could become one of the first places where wet-bulb temperatures routinely exceed 35°C. Which of the following statements best reflect(s) the implication of the above-said report?
I.Peninsular India will most likely suffer from flooding, tropical cyclones and droughts.
II.The survival of animals including humans will be affected as shedding of their body heat through perspiration becomes difficult.
Select the correct answer using the code given below.
Consider the following statements regarding El Niño:
1.El Niño is officially declared when central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies exceed +0.5°C above the long-term average.
2.A positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole typically amplifies El Niño's drought-inducing effect on the Indian monsoon.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
With reference to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), consider the following statements:
1.It measures the sea surface temperature difference between the western Indian Ocean near Africa and the eastern Indian Ocean near Sumatra.
2.A negative IOD phase typically offsets El Niño's drying effect on the Indian monsoon.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
Consider the following statements regarding the Walker Circulation:
1.It is an east-west atmospheric circulation loop over the Pacific Ocean linked to pressure differences between the eastern and western Pacific.
2.Its weakening during El Niño increases convective activity and rainfall over the Indian Ocean region.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
With reference to institutions and research bodies associated with El Niño monitoring, match List I with List II and select the correct answer using the code given below:
List I (Organisation)
A.World Meteorological Organisation
B.NOAA
C.INCOIS
D.Nature Conservation Foundation
List II (Role)
1.India's ocean monitoring agency forecasting marine heat stress
2.Global meteorological coordination and forecasting body
3.Research on long-term Lakshadweep coral reef decline
4.US federal agency issuing oceanic and atmospheric forecasts
Which of the following years have historically coincided with strong El Niño-linked droughts in India?
1.1972
2.2002
3.2009
4.2015
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