"US-China Summit Signals Managed Rivalry, Tests India's Options"
Thucydides Trap
the structural risk of conflict when a rising power challenges an established power, or of collusion against a third power
G2
an informal term for a managed, calibrated US-China rivalry conducted through direct summitry and dialogue
India's foreign policy has long rested on strategic autonomy, the ability to deal with major powers on its own terms rather than binding itself to one bloc. Since Rajiv Gandhi's 1988 visit to China, both countries worked to keep their border dispute contained while trade expanded rapidly. India's security establishment continued to treat China as its principal long-term challenge even as trade grew. A section of India's strategic community assumed Washington would always need India as a counterweight to Chinese power in Asia.
That assumption is now under strain. The friction is not new. Even before the present phase, Washington struggled to give India a place in its global strategy matching India's own sense of its standing, whether on defence-technology transfers, trade access, or India's continued reliance on Russian defence equipment. What has changed is the wider context. The United States and China have met repeatedly through 2026, extending a trade truce and opening new channels on trade and artificial intelligence, while leaving harder issues such as semiconductors and Taiwan unresolved. This calibrated, managed rivalry, sometimes called a G2 arrangement, changes the terms on which middle powers like India must operate.
The structural trade imbalance between India and China is part of this picture. China's exports to India are valued at roughly eight times India's exports to China, and Beijing has repeatedly used this kind of economic leverage alongside military modernisation to expand its regional weight. This is the same dynamic India must weigh when assessing Chinese intentions as a neighbour, not merely a bilateral trade statistic.
The Thucydides Trap, a term associated with political scientist Graham Allison, describes the structural risk of conflict when a rising power challenges an established one. It has a second, less-discussed dimension: established powers sometimes collude to constrain third powers rather than fight each other directly. This is the risk India now faces if Washington and Beijing increasingly manage their own rivalry through direct summitry, trade arrangements, and technology dialogues, narrowing the space in which India can play one power against the other.
India's main hedging tools are groupings built partly around shared concern over Chinese assertiveness. …
"The USA is facing an existential threat in the form of a China, that is much more challenging than the erstwhile Soviet Union." Explain.
"China is using its economic relations and positive trade surplus as tools to develop potential military power status in Asia." In the light of this statement, discuss its impact on India as her neighbour.
Consider the following groupings and their member countries:
1.Quad
2.I2U2
Which of the following is/are correctly matched?
A.India, United States, Japan, Australia – Quad
B.India, Israel, UAE, United States – I2U2
Select the correct answer using the code below.
The 'Thucydides Trap', a concept associated with political scientist Graham Allison, primarily describes:
With reference to India-China relations, consider the following statements:
1.Rajiv Gandhi's 1988 visit to China marked the start of sustained efforts to keep the border dispute contained while expanding trade.
2.China's exports to India are currently higher in value than India's exports to China.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
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