"Why RBI's GDP Growth Forecasts Keep Being Revised"
GVA (Gross Value Added)
the value added in production across agriculture, industry and services sectors
GDP (Gross Domestic Product)
GVA plus taxes on products minus subsidies on products
The National Statistics Office (NSO) under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) compiles India's national income data. Growth is measured mainly through two linked indicators. Gross Value Added (GVA) measures the value added in production across sectors like agriculture, industry and services. GDP is obtained from GVA by adding net taxes. GDP equals GVA plus taxes on products minus subsidies on products, a relation that matters because taxes and subsidies depend on government choices, not underlying output. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reviews its growth forecast at every bi-monthly monetary policy meeting, and its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)'s expectations guide interest-rate decisions. Over nearly two decades, the RBI has also tracked outside economists' expectations through a dedicated survey, creating a long record of how forecasts compare with what actually happened.
The RBI's Survey of Professional Forecasters, running since September 2007, polls economists from banks, rating agencies and research bodies every two months. Comparing their March-month median forecast for GVA growth with the eventual outcome shows whether forecasters tend to over- or under-estimate the economy. GVA is used instead of GDP for this comparison because taxes and subsidies are discretionary government decisions, so GVA better isolates real output trends. Growth data is also tracked against a base year. …
With reference to India's national income accounting, which of the following correctly represents the relationship between GDP and GVA?
Which of the following bodies is primarily responsible for compiling India's national income accounts, including GDP and GVA estimates?
Consider the following statements about India's GDP/GVA data series:
1.The 2011-12 series is the only one for which historical back-data is available over several years.
2.A newer national accounts series uses 2022-23 as its base year.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
The Reserve Bank of India's Survey of Professional Forecasters, which tracks economists' growth expectations, has been conducted since which year?
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